Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. They composes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
